Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Discussion of development releases of Prohashing.
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Steve Sokolowski
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Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:02 pm

Hi!
  • The most common support ticket is new registrations. Unfortunately, we can't open an unlimited number of registrations right now because of system capacity, but we will be opening a limited number of registrations tomorrow afternoon, probably around 12:30pm EDT.
  • Some users are currently having connectivity issues and those issues are not caused by performance problems. Chris has been hindered by a motherboard failure that has sucked up his time today. As soon as he can get the motherboard fixed, he'll be back to trying to diagnose these problems. We still do not have an estimate as to when connectivity issues will be able to be resolved.
  • We completed our research on financials and have the final numbers, a few days ahead of the previous estimate of Labor Day. A meeting will be held tomorrow afternoon with a number of people to certify that the numbers are accurate and to recommend a course of action for the project's future.
  • If you're curious as to the numbers we came up with, our base scenario BTC+Segwit2x+BCH price total is $980, LTC is $15, and DASH is $90. These are estimates of prices next year. Our "very optimistic" scenario has prices ending up slightly lower than they are now: BTC+Segwit2x+BCH at $5000, LTC at $50, and DASH around $150. The future of the business is almost entirely dependent upon cryptocurrency pricing, so getting these numbers right is important and we put a lot of time into gathering information to make the projections. Perhaps I might write a post about how I came to these.
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S3KshuN8
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by S3KshuN8 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:04 pm

Litecoin is currently about $87.56
mycide
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by mycide » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:14 pm

those numbers are sure minimalistic numbers, if it goes to these numbers or stay there for a long time it would mean more or less collapse of the mining market. its ofc a possibility but not even the companies selling these rigs want to collapse the market, they'd be wise to cap off sale and production before profits go to low. they want nothing more but to keep selling next gen rigs for us as long as possible.

Sure big business require "realistic" numbers, im just saying if it even goes "slightly" better you will be sitting a pile of gold, would you rather say in the future missing this train, that you never took the shot, Steve, this shit could be what the stock market was when it was fresh, these years of mining BTC LTC and Co. Surely more to come in the future.

Just saying i missed one or two oppertunities already because being to cautious and thinking to much. It's keeps one from sleeping sometimes ;)
Running rigs: KNC Titan, Antminer D3 & L3+'s
wisdomofsol
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by wisdomofsol » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:47 pm

sweet thanks, hopefully my friend gets lucky and is able to reg
frphm
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by frphm » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:13 pm

I am very, very interested in a write-up on how you came to these conclusions. I'm not surprised by your extreme caution anymore, but you have been wasting a supreme amount of time and energy (and missed opportunities) on the idea of a total market collapse for almost a year now. Heck, in January you said that Bitcoin wasn't sustainable at $700, and look what happened.

Image

Back then, sure, the market was fueled by speculation, and mainstream understanding/adoption was weak. But this is September 2017, and I see cryptocurrency news on TV now. Regularly. Collectively it's a $180,000,000,000 market now. At this point it'd be like calling NASDAQ a speculative bubble that'll crash ~75%. I really don't see it as a possibility anymore.
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Steve Sokolowski
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:24 am

frphm wrote:I am very, very interested in a write-up on how you came to these conclusions. I'm not surprised by your extreme caution anymore, but you have been wasting a supreme amount of time and energy (and missed opportunities) on the idea of a total market collapse for almost a year now. Heck, in January you said that Bitcoin wasn't sustainable at $700, and look what happened.

Image

Back then, sure, the market was fueled by speculation, and mainstream understanding/adoption was weak. But this is September 2017, and I see cryptocurrency news on TV now. Regularly. Collectively it's a $180,000,000,000 market now. At this point it'd be like calling NASDAQ a speculative bubble that'll crash ~75%. I really don't see it as a possibility anymore.
Keep in mind that the NASDAQ was a speculative bubble that crashed 75%.
mycide
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by mycide » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:29 am

Yes and after that crash Nasdaq was never seen again. What a failure.
Running rigs: KNC Titan, Antminer D3 & L3+'s
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Steve Sokolowski
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:32 am

mycide wrote:those numbers are sure minimalistic numbers, if it goes to these numbers or stay there for a long time it would mean more or less collapse of the mining market. its ofc a possibility but not even the companies selling these rigs want to collapse the market, they'd be wise to cap off sale and production before profits go to low. they want nothing more but to keep selling next gen rigs for us as long as possible.

Sure big business require "realistic" numbers, im just saying if it even goes "slightly" better you will be sitting a pile of gold, would you rather say in the future missing this train, that you never took the shot, Steve, this shit could be what the stock market was when it was fresh, these years of mining BTC LTC and Co. Surely more to come in the future.

Just saying i missed one or two oppertunities already because being to cautious and thinking to much. It's keeps one from sleeping sometimes ;)
I think those are the most realistic numbers simply because that's what's always happened before. It's never "different this time."

The mining market is likely to become very unprofitable for a few months, as it always does after every bubble. What's interesting about mining is that you make money based on the price trend. When price goes up, machines can't be manufactured fast enough and hashrate lags behind price. When price falls, profitability declines because the previously ordered machines flood the market and people turn them on in an attempt to salvage whatever they can.

Eventually, as happened multiple times before, there is a period of stability where almost no machines are manufactured, because all the existing equipment is just barely above profitability. That will probably happen this bubble when profitability reaches 0.5 cents on scrypt.
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Eyedol-X
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Eyedol-X » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:14 am

Steve Sokolowski wrote:
mycide wrote:those numbers are sure minimalistic numbers, if it goes to these numbers or stay there for a long time it would mean more or less collapse of the mining market. its ofc a possibility but not even the companies selling these rigs want to collapse the market, they'd be wise to cap off sale and production before profits go to low. they want nothing more but to keep selling next gen rigs for us as long as possible.

Sure big business require "realistic" numbers, im just saying if it even goes "slightly" better you will be sitting a pile of gold, would you rather say in the future missing this train, that you never took the shot, Steve, this shit could be what the stock market was when it was fresh, these years of mining BTC LTC and Co. Surely more to come in the future.

Just saying i missed one or two oppertunities already because being to cautious and thinking to much. It's keeps one from sleeping sometimes ;)
I think those are the most realistic numbers simply because that's what's always happened before. It's never "different this time."

The mining market is likely to become very unprofitable for a few months, as it always does after every bubble. What's interesting about mining is that you make money based on the price trend. When price goes up, machines can't be manufactured fast enough and hashrate lags behind price. When price falls, profitability declines because the previously ordered machines flood the market and people turn them on in an attempt to salvage whatever they can.

Eventually, as happened multiple times before, there is a period of stability where almost no machines are manufactured, because all the existing equipment is just barely above profitability. That will probably happen this bubble when profitability reaches 0.5 cents on scrypt.
This perspective assumes the world markets and view towards crypto stays static. However, it's not, there is more and more public attention, main stream media attention, attention from governments and major enterprise than ever before on these topics.

I agree with your assessment if you take the above into an account and look at the past history as to what the "public view" of crypto is, which was an unfavorable view. If you take that unfavorable view as a static view going forward, your figures make perfect sense in my opinion.

the "dot com" bubble, was indeed a bubble but it lasted many years, during which time some people made tons of money. Mark Cuban, a dot com billionaire, previously one of those people that had an unfavorable public view on crypto has even recently changed his view on the subject and begun investing.

Even if we are in a bubble right now (likely) and while I could see prices falling post bubble, I don't see see the prices falling back to pre-bubble figures unless there is some sort of global economic shift away from crypto.
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