AppleMiner wrote:The price per MH on Sat the 14th was .0013 X 15000 = $19.50 per D3 last week.
The price this week has dropped down since wednesday to .0010 X 15000 = $15.00
Yep on X-11 looks to be about a 25% dip since the previous week.
I expect it to go down again some more as the D3s for December batch will be turned on and tried out prior to shipping and the D3s from november get to their destinations and go back online.
If daily profits get cut by another 25% between now and the end of the year do not be too surprised.
Not a gambling man, but if I was Id put my money on D3s getting $10 a day by end of January 2018.
I also forgot to mention, the D3's run at 17.5 gh/s on average - not 15 gh/s as advertised (Unsure why, but whatever - an extra 2.5 gh/s was a welcome surprise!). So even at that math, $0.13 x 17500 = $22.75 and $0.10 x 17500 = $17.50
The day when I got $14, x11 was $.12 per mh/s expected payout. That *should* have been ~$21. Maybe I could see $19~$20, but $14? I had 100% uptime, zero stale/rejected shares, and several blocks discovered (yea I know, millicents worth of discovery, but still...). The following day it dropped to $0.11 (on the day, it apparently adjusted afterwards to say $0.10) and I barely crested $17... the following day, after ~12 hours and it appearing to on track for a whopping $6 earned at that point (meaning $12 for the whole day), I aimed my unit back to nicehash.
Basically what I'm pointing out is, the math isn't adding up anymore the last few days. Several others I've noted were complaining about it, and a friend who runs a small farm of a few dozen ASICs aimed it here at prohashing this last week, even he noted the unusual drop that happened about mid-week - swapped half his farm over to nicehash, and they're earning, mh/s vs mh/s, 10~15%+ more now.
My second point is, if this trend continues, prohashing will lose their base. Loyalty goes only so far if the wallets aren't being lined in this market, and while a few percent can be argued away, that large a gap is substantial in even a short run, let alone a long run.
Unfortunately though, I think you're right - but it'll be actually end of Nov when that starts happening. A lot of people, myself included, got burned on these machines. I'm researching OCing the D3 effectively and efficiently, hopefully without causing damage to it, in order to squeak what extra ROI I can out of this before it becomes a money sink.
But if these units end up becoming more expensive to run than what they generate before the end of the year, could there be some sort of lawsuit brought up against Bitmain? Volatility being what it is, fine, but anyone with a few cents of understanding with the difficulty could foretell, even without a crystal ball, that dumping tens of thousands of these on the market was going to destroy it in a very short period of time due to exponential difficulty bombs.
