CSZiggy wrote:Steve Sokolowski wrote:Conclusion
In conclusion, the sudden influx of people claiming that this cycle is different are wrong, unless they can point out a specific event that will stop what's been happening for nine years. Since I haven't seen any presented other than irrational panic, the same type of people who disputed my claim that bitcoins would be worth $980 and litecoins $50 are now saying that these coins will never recover. During the next bubble, they'll say that bitcoins could never be worth at little as $20,000 again.
If conditions get worse than they were during the $32 -> $2 cycle, then I'll start to worry. Short of a catastrophic mathematical proof that every cryptocurrency has a security flaw in a way that cannot be coded around, matching that time is hard to imagine.
Just wondering if in lite of prices and the bitcoincash split-war, the trade-war, the strong USD$, if you have any updated predictions.
Do you think if the prices go any further there will be a major tipping point where enough people shut down to impact the system?
If so at what point is that tipping point? I heard the breakeven on BTC mining was $5700, as we are now solidly below that, just wondering how much lower you think it will go before massive groups shut down to conserve money if they cant sell for profit in the very near future.
I think I was pretty clear that the bottom for bitcoins is $980. I don't see what's changed to invalidate that prediction.
The only thing that's different this time around is the timing. While the bubble cycle keeps occurring, the timing does not. One would think that the bubbles would get shorter over time, because of technology advancing exponentially. Or, at least that the bubbles would always take longer. But there doesn't seem to be any pattern to bubble lengths - the 2011 cycle lasted two years, then the first 2013 cycle was only a few months, and then the second 2013 cycle was four years long.
ETH, in particular, is ridiculously undervalued, and yet I still think it will be sold down into double digits.
The bottom of this cycle isn't going to be reached until we start seeing high-profile bankruptcies and company "pivots" - which are just bankruptcies where the company uses the same name for a different product. I think that hashrate will decline by at least half, that half of all exchanges will go out of business in the next year, and that 80% of the most promising blockchain projects, even ones that had potential like storj or 0x, will close because they run out of money to pay employees.
Because of the bankruptcies effect, the lower the prices get, the longer the cycle will last. The limiting factor in this current economy for any business is talent. It is nearly impossible to hire people, and once they leave, they don't come back. As prices fall, and companies fail, that talent is permanently gone and will be working in other fields, delaying the recovery even further.