One thought - Thursday, September 18, 2014

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Steve Sokolowski
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One thought - Thursday, September 18, 2014

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:42 am

I thought it was important to write today, even though it's a Toastmasters Thursday and I don't have much time:

This is it!

This cycle is coming to a conclusion. I hadn't thought that the trend reversal was going to happen for a few more weeks, but the panic is accelerating. Look back five months to the last time this happened in April, where the bottom fell out all the way down to $340 in one evening. We're starting to see people even in /r/bitcoinmarkets saying that bitcoins are dead. Everything is aligning exactly as it was before, setting up for a huge last capitulation before the trend reversal.

Those who bought at that low point in mid-April made 25% on their money by the next morning.

I'm curious to hear from people who are experts at this stuff as to what slope we need to see where it will be clear that the capitulation is in full swing. It doesn't seem to me that the market has yet reached the absolute panic phase. If I had to take a guess, it would be when we get to the rate of greater than $10/hr in losses and the price falls at least $60 in a matter of a few hours. I'm no longer sure that we have weeks until that's going to happen; it could be a matter of days or even hours at this point.
cryptorific
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Re: One thought - Thursday, September 18, 2014

Post by cryptorific » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:01 pm

I know calling a bottom is generally bad form, but I'll be putting in a buy around $375 and if it continues around $350.
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Steve Sokolowski
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Location: State College, PA

Re: One thought - Thursday, September 18, 2014

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:23 pm

Things seem to be accelerating now - it's at the $10/hr threshold at this point. I checked my bank accounts to see how much money I have available to take a risk on this. Coinbase doesn't allow instant buys anymore, so I'll send an equivalent number of bitcoins to the number I buy there, so that I have the ability to sell instantly.

It's still too soon, I think. Rule #1 of investing is "don't lose money," and nobody's ever gone bankrupt by not buying. Bubbles, both up and down, have the most extreme moves immediately before the trend reversal.

I wonder if there's something to be said about the time of day. The pattern is not only following the cycle's end in April, but the time of day is also spot on as well. The April decline hit $400 around midday and got to $340 in the evening, so I wonder if the evening will also yield the low here too.

By the way, this decline is causing an amazing profitability increase. Anyone reading this should turn on their miners now. We're up to 0.0007 and still rising - there is a killing to be made because the price of altcoins is not following.
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