Actually, if you read more about Cuban, you'll find that the reason he became rich is because he got out of the bubble before it crashed, not because he created an exceptional company.Eyedol-X wrote:This perspective assumes the world markets and view towards crypto stays static. However, it's not, there is more and more public attention, main stream media attention, attention from governments and major enterprise than ever before on these topics.Steve Sokolowski wrote:I think those are the most realistic numbers simply because that's what's always happened before. It's never "different this time."mycide wrote:those numbers are sure minimalistic numbers, if it goes to these numbers or stay there for a long time it would mean more or less collapse of the mining market. its ofc a possibility but not even the companies selling these rigs want to collapse the market, they'd be wise to cap off sale and production before profits go to low. they want nothing more but to keep selling next gen rigs for us as long as possible.
Sure big business require "realistic" numbers, im just saying if it even goes "slightly" better you will be sitting a pile of gold, would you rather say in the future missing this train, that you never took the shot, Steve, this shit could be what the stock market was when it was fresh, these years of mining BTC LTC and Co. Surely more to come in the future.
Just saying i missed one or two oppertunities already because being to cautious and thinking to much. It's keeps one from sleeping sometimes
The mining market is likely to become very unprofitable for a few months, as it always does after every bubble. What's interesting about mining is that you make money based on the price trend. When price goes up, machines can't be manufactured fast enough and hashrate lags behind price. When price falls, profitability declines because the previously ordered machines flood the market and people turn them on in an attempt to salvage whatever they can.
Eventually, as happened multiple times before, there is a period of stability where almost no machines are manufactured, because all the existing equipment is just barely above profitability. That will probably happen this bubble when profitability reaches 0.5 cents on scrypt.
I agree with your assessment if you take the above into an account and look at the past history as to what the "public view" of crypto is, which was an unfavorable view. If you take that unfavorable view as a static view going forward, your figures make perfect sense in my opinion.
the "dot com" bubble, was indeed a bubble but it lasted many years, during which time some people made tons of money. Mark Cuban, a dot com billionaire, previously one of those people that had an unfavorable public view on crypto has even recently changed his view on the subject and begun investing.
Even if we are in a bubble right now (likely) and while I could see prices falling post bubble, I don't see see the prices falling back to pre-bubble figures unless there is some sort of global economic shift away from crypto.
While everyone is obviously different, I think that there's a sort of "generational divide" across the Internet when it comes to cryptocurrency. I've noticed that there are a lot of newcomers to the industry who never read about what happened during the last five bubbles, and they don't remember what it was like to try to survive during the down times. Some of them, undoubtedly, think that it can never happen again. While your idea has merit and may ultimately be proven right, I still don't see any signs of actual widespread usage that would back up something that is fundamentally different about this bubble.