Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Discussion of development releases of Prohashing.
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Steve Sokolowski
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:40 am

Eyedol-X wrote:
Steve Sokolowski wrote:
mycide wrote:those numbers are sure minimalistic numbers, if it goes to these numbers or stay there for a long time it would mean more or less collapse of the mining market. its ofc a possibility but not even the companies selling these rigs want to collapse the market, they'd be wise to cap off sale and production before profits go to low. they want nothing more but to keep selling next gen rigs for us as long as possible.

Sure big business require "realistic" numbers, im just saying if it even goes "slightly" better you will be sitting a pile of gold, would you rather say in the future missing this train, that you never took the shot, Steve, this shit could be what the stock market was when it was fresh, these years of mining BTC LTC and Co. Surely more to come in the future.

Just saying i missed one or two oppertunities already because being to cautious and thinking to much. It's keeps one from sleeping sometimes ;)
I think those are the most realistic numbers simply because that's what's always happened before. It's never "different this time."

The mining market is likely to become very unprofitable for a few months, as it always does after every bubble. What's interesting about mining is that you make money based on the price trend. When price goes up, machines can't be manufactured fast enough and hashrate lags behind price. When price falls, profitability declines because the previously ordered machines flood the market and people turn them on in an attempt to salvage whatever they can.

Eventually, as happened multiple times before, there is a period of stability where almost no machines are manufactured, because all the existing equipment is just barely above profitability. That will probably happen this bubble when profitability reaches 0.5 cents on scrypt.
This perspective assumes the world markets and view towards crypto stays static. However, it's not, there is more and more public attention, main stream media attention, attention from governments and major enterprise than ever before on these topics.

I agree with your assessment if you take the above into an account and look at the past history as to what the "public view" of crypto is, which was an unfavorable view. If you take that unfavorable view as a static view going forward, your figures make perfect sense in my opinion.

the "dot com" bubble, was indeed a bubble but it lasted many years, during which time some people made tons of money. Mark Cuban, a dot com billionaire, previously one of those people that had an unfavorable public view on crypto has even recently changed his view on the subject and begun investing.

Even if we are in a bubble right now (likely) and while I could see prices falling post bubble, I don't see see the prices falling back to pre-bubble figures unless there is some sort of global economic shift away from crypto.
Actually, if you read more about Cuban, you'll find that the reason he became rich is because he got out of the bubble before it crashed, not because he created an exceptional company.

While everyone is obviously different, I think that there's a sort of "generational divide" across the Internet when it comes to cryptocurrency. I've noticed that there are a lot of newcomers to the industry who never read about what happened during the last five bubbles, and they don't remember what it was like to try to survive during the down times. Some of them, undoubtedly, think that it can never happen again. While your idea has merit and may ultimately be proven right, I still don't see any signs of actual widespread usage that would back up something that is fundamentally different about this bubble.
mycide
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by mycide » Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:45 pm

The big difference is that people of all ages speaks about it. There is a huge change in crypto awareness, especially bitcoin - around the globe. Fundamental difference form the other bubbles.
Running rigs: KNC Titan, Antminer D3 & L3+'s
frphm
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by frphm » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:06 pm

I get that there's an element of PTSD from previous crashes that put you in a bad economic position. No one likes to be flipped on their back like that. But what's currently going on in crypto is extremely different from even the beginning of this year.

The crashes you flashback to happened when crypto investing was dominated by people in their twenties and thirties. Inexperienced and overreactive. The past couple months is the first time that significant money is coming from very rich, very experienced investors. They know how markets fluctuate, and they aren't gonna permanently jump ship just because of a 20% dip like the "lambo" meme warrior investors on Reddit.

And in terms of mining - once all coins have been mined in BTC and LTC I think the fees will rise significantly, and people will look to new coins with lower fees as currency and only use LTC/BTC as a store of value, hence continuing the cycle of mineable altcoins. But that period of uncertainty as that balance is figured out may be our next big crash. So, my opinion is that we have until 2019-2020 before the next huge crypto depression.
JKDReaper
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by JKDReaper » Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:18 pm

My 2 Satoshi...I absolutely believe there will be a "correction" to most, if not all, the major coins. But I'm a number cruncher by nature and career, OCD with number/pattern focus, and just a research junkie in general...And while I do see a decline coming, the given numbers (especially the $900 combined 3 BTC!) Is far below...FAR below...what I could conceive happening barring an entire crypto collapse. The comparison is made often to previous bubbles and the internet bubble...Given even those comparisons, the Nasdaq market would have closed entirely after the net bubble. As Eyedol said, I see a market decline, but not to the pre bubble levels (I don't consider this a bubble personally, more of a surge with correction coming, to say this is a bubble nearly does indicate you think the entire crypto market will collapse).

I would personally say, based on research and number/pattern crunching, that your "optimistic" level is actually closer to a pessimistic level. There may not be "widespread" use...But it can't be denied, that it is definitely being used more and more daily. (See PIVX in Australia as minor example).

As always, I'm no expert, just my humble opinion.
JKDReaper
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by JKDReaper » Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:24 pm

Small additional note...We can't singularly compare to the past...If this was done, markets would never grow, ever. We must use the past but also use present and future as well.
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Steve Sokolowski
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Steve Sokolowski » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:05 pm

We're pleased to announce that the meeting yielded a decision, so the research is complete.

We hope to announce our future plans in about two weeks.
Sunegg
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Re: Status as of Friday, September 1, 2017

Post by Sunegg » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:45 am

Steve Sokolowski wrote:We're pleased to announce that the meeting yielded a decision, so the research is complete.

We hope to announce our future plans in about two weeks.
Well, congrats on making a decision. Looking forward to the announcement.
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